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Company Vision: Charging for a sustainable future

Charging station operation

Take China as an example, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has exceeded 50% for consecutive years, and the charging pile industry is undergoing unprecedentedly fierce competition. From the core business districts of first-tier cities to the Gobi Desert in the northwest, from central government-owned infrastructure to private capital, all parties are engaged in intense competition around technology routes, market share, and business models.

 

From the perspective of investment and industry, this article reveals the investment logic behind the rapid development of the charging pile industry. High-voltage fast-charging technology is expected to become the mainstream of the charging pile market in the future. With the rapid iteration of Supercharging technology and the entry of large-scale industrial capital, the industry is accelerating its integration, and small and medium-sized companies are facing pressure to be acquired or exit the market. Technological iteration, sinking markets in small and medium-sized cities, and overseas exports are important directions for the future development of charging pile companies.

Supercharging Expected to Become Market Mainstream

Recently, the charging pile industry has become a major focus of the capital market. Stimulated by BYD's promotion of "10C technology" and large-scale construction of "megawatt flash charging stations", many charging pile concept stocks have risen sharply. Since the beginning of the year, the Wind Charging Pile Index has ascended by more than 29%.

In the market, companies such as Huawei, Li Auto, XPeng, Xiaomi have all announced plans to build superfast charging piles on a large scale. Each is trying to seize more users in the charging pile market through technological iteration. The competition over technical routes among different companies has catalyzed a new "energy replenishment revolution."

Take Shenzhen, China, for example, which is striving to build a "supercharging city". Data shows that Shenzhen has built and put into use 1,002 supercharging stations and over 410,000 charging piles, becoming the first city in the world to achieve a global number of supercharging stations and charging guns that exceed gas stations and gas guns.

"Vehicle owners can complete charging in the time it takes to drink a cup of coffee." At the "PV-ESS-Supercharging-Vehicle-Grid Interaction" integrated demonstration station in Shenzhen's Bijiashan Park, we saw that the charging station deploys 3 fully liquid-cooled supercharging hosts, equipped with 6 liquid-cooled supercharging guns and 22 fast-charging guns, 2 energy storage products, and 2 PV carports, as well as a coffee station.

"High-voltage fast charging technology is expected to become the mainstream of the charging pile market in the future." said the manager of Cathay Smart Car Fund. Ultra-fast charging mainly has two technical routes: high current and high voltage. Since high-voltage technology can reduce energy consumption, improve battery life, reduce weight, and save space, it has obvious advantages in comparison and is expected to become the mainstream trend in the future.

"Most of China's leading NEV companies are building their own super-fast charging piles. The essence of supercharging is to improve the efficiency of energy replenishment and enhance the consumer experience." said investment and research personnel from Debon Fund. There are currently two technical routes in the market: charging and battery swapping, but from the perspective of the total number of EVs, charging has become the mainstream way of replenishing energy. With the technological development and continuous improvement of infrastructure, charging will display obvious advantages over battery swapping in terms of popularity and user acceptance.

Tesla was the first to build supercharging stations nationwide. In recent years, BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto have all begun to promote ultra-fast charging above 5C. Most fast-charging piles on the market have a power of 120-240kW, while ultra-fast charging above 5C has a power of more than 500kW, which can fully charge a vehicle within 20 minutes, and has higher requirements for charging power modules.

Ultra-high voltage fast-charging and battery swapping have their own advantages and disadvantages. It is estimated that it will be a protracted battle, and in the end, it will still be a competition of comprehensive capabilities, such as the degree of coordination between vehicles and charging piles, the speed of power grid transformation, and battery standardization. The rapid increase in NEV penetration rate may force charging piles to upgrade their power and further differentiate charging scenarios: home charging piles must be economical, while public charging piles must "quench thirst". On the supply side, the increase in utilization makes a profit turnaround imminent, which will also accelerate the elimination of inferior production capacity.

Three Major Operational Players

Currently, there are many companies building and operating charging piles in the Chinese market, which can be roughly divided into a three-legged competition among central government-owned enterprise infrastructure, automaker ecosystems, and third-party operators. Companies like PetroChina and State Grid rely on energy networks to gain the initiative; enterprises such as Huawei and XPeng bind users through ecological closed loops; and third-party operators build moats with economies of scale.

Due to the low entry threshold, many small and medium-sized start-up companies are participating in small and medium-sized cities. The charging pile market has formed a pattern of competition among hundreds of companies, and with very fierce rivalry.

According to statistics from the China Charging Alliance, China had 3.58 million public charging piles and 9.24 million private charging piles in 2024. However, the number of new public charging piles in 2024 was 850,000, a significant slowdown from the 43% year-on-year growth rate in 2023, leading to a drop in charging pile product prices and bringing profit pressure to manufacturers.

"Charging pile operation is an capital-intensive business. In the early stages of EV development, utilization rates were low and profits were meager. In recent years, with the increase in the number of EVs, leading operators have begun to make profits. Early-developing companies have locational advantages, occupy better sites, and have higher traffic. Currently, the landscape of charging pile operators has basically stabilized." According to the China Charging Alliance, as of the beginning of 2025, the top four public charging pile operators in China held a combined market share of 58%, with a relatively fragmented competitive landscape.

"The current entry threshold for the charging pile market is low, and the market competition is relatively fierce. From upstream equipment manufacturing to downstream charging station operations, each link has attracted many participants." said investment and research personnel from Debon Fund. In such a market environment, companies with core competitiveness in technological innovation, service quality, and operational efficiency will be able to gain significant advantages and benefits in the continued development of the charging pile market.

Nord Fund's fund manager said that firstly, some resource-integrating giants deploy "refueling + charging" integrated energy stations relying on gas station networks, such as the State Grid, which has advantages in grid dispatching and public fast charging. Secondly, the leading operators continue to lead the public charging market with their scaled operation capabilities and data platform optimization. In addition, some automakers improve user experience by building their own supercharging networks, which can bind users, such as battery swapping + supercharging combinations.

It is believed that companies with strong R&D capabilities, high cost-effectiveness, and complete supporting services are expected to truly benefit from the large-scale development of charging piles. On the one hand, companies with strong R&D capabilities are expected to lead industry trends and gain first-mover advantage; on the other hand, companies with scale effects and cost advantages in the developing sinking markets such as counties still have an edge. Furthermore, charging piles have the characteristics of infrastructure attributes and high frequency of use, and their full life cycle services are increasingly important to the user experience, directly affecting userspurchase decision. Some companies are also expected to gain competitive advantages in the large-scale development of charging piles with complete supporting services.

"Three types of companies may break through in the future: technology-oriented, scale-oriented, and ecosystem-oriented." Technology-oriented companies have technical barriers such as high-voltage fast charging and vehicle-grid interaction; scale-oriented players takes advantage of higher market share and a large user base to dilute costs, form economies of scale, and create profit space; ecosystem-oriented enterprises are leading firms with integrated solutions from vehicles to piles, stations, and even cloud systems, which then use services to firmly "circle" vehicle owners and obtain excess returns through user stickiness.

Opportunities in Two Directions

Many fund managers have stated that technological iteration and overseas exports may be two important directions for the future development of charging pile companies.

Some believe that there are two main growth points for the industry in the future. One is the upgrade of fast charging: to improve the charging experience of EVs, automakers have started rolling out 5-10C ultra-fast charging models, which has greatly increased the power of charging piles, as well as manufacturing difficulty and product prices. The second is exports to emerging markets: in the past, exports of charging piles to the European and North American markets has gradually stabilized , while EV development in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America is lagging behind, and they are on the eve of an explosion in penetration rate , where demand for charging piles may usher in rapid growth.

Experts also note that the first growth opportunity is the technological upgrades. Users have increasingly demanding requirements for charging speeds, and ultra-fast charging (such as 800V high-voltage platforms and liquid cooling technology) may become the mainstream, especially in high-traffic scenarios such as highways and core urban areas. PV-ESS-Charging integration can ease the pressure on the power grid and reduce electricity costs, suitable for scenarios such as industrial parks and commercial real estate.

The second is the growth brought by the penetration of sinking market. The coverage rate of charging networks in third- and fourth-tier cities and townships is low, which may become the focus of growth combined with policy subsidies and the popularization of NEVs in urban and rural areas.

Finally, overseas market expansion is also likely to bring growth opportunities. The construction of charging piles in Europe and the U.S. lags behind, and Chinese companies have certain cost and technical advantages in equipment manufacturing and operational experience.

First, it depends on policy implementation. Second, it depends on downstream demand. The current vehicle-to-pile ratio remains at around 2.5:1, still far from the ideal ratio of 1:1. As the number of NEVs continues to grow, demand is expected to be relatively stable. Third, it depends on the situation in overseas markets: the current vehicle-to-pile gap is much larger than in China, with relatively higher price and gross margin levels. Fourth, it depends on the technological advancement: progress in high-voltage supercharging technology, PV-ESS-Charging integration, etc., are also expected to further stimulate the demand for charging piles.

"The growth of the charging pile market has shifted from land grabbing to intensive cultivation, and from electricity porters to energy routers. Technological breakthroughs in supercharging and scenario sinking, as well as the reconstruction of energy networks (such as participation in virtual power plants), may bring further growth space," according to some analysts.

As supercharging gradually covers China's first-tier cities, the sinking market in small and medium-sized cities have also become important battlefields for all parties. First, total demand has surged: charging piles have been rapidly popularized in first- and second-tier cities with increased density, and are sinking to lower-tier cities. At the same time, demand has obvious structural characteristics: the increasing proportion of private cars has spurred demand for slow charging in communities and destination charging; car-hailing and logistics vehicles have driven the densification of fast-charging nodes in cities. Meanwhile, technological iteration pressure is relatively high: the battery capacity of EVs generally exceeds 80kWh, forcing the charging pile power to upgrade from 60kW to 180kW+, and old equipment may face elimination. Industry integration is accelerating, and small and medium-sized operators may be acquired and merged or exit, eventually forming a monopolistic competition pattern of "national platform + regional leader".

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